Finding Value in Standard Bets

For our third iteration of our Sports Betting Path series, we will discuss finding value in standard bets. In the previous two installments of this series, we discussed setting up an initial bankroll and the basics of betting. With that knowledge firmly in place, we can now start making a few bets! Where do we begin?

How to Find Positive EV in Standard Bets?

GamedayMath provides two main ways to find positive values in moneyline, point spreads and over/under bets.

1. BetScore: This is an aggregated variable that compiles information from a wide range of factors to provide a single, weighted average score for a bet. It offers an easy way for users to gauge the general value of each bet available on GamedayMath. We provide more information and take a bit of a deeper dive on BetScore here. In general, any BetScore with a value greater than 70 has an expected value that is greater than zero. The higher the number, the better.
2. Euclid EV on the Odds Dashboard: Euclid EV is a calculation that is unique to each GamedayMath user. This calculation it takes into account which sports books each user has access to (remember, that more is better). The Euclid EV finds the Best line available to the user and compares it to the Nostradamus No-Vig (which represents where the line should be without vigorish).

I See a Bet with Positive EV! Now What?

Now that we've utilized the BetScore and Odds Dashboards to find bets, we can begin to analyze and place bets. There are a few finals steps that we would take before placing bet.

1. Make sure the line is available: Our odds feeds are pretty fast and reliable, but good odds move very quickly. Thus, it is important to make sure that the price is still available at the sports book in which you wish to place the bet. If it isn't, then you may want to pass on the bet.
2. Do a quick check on the line (optional): It's important to note here that lines move fast so you don't have much time to mess around once you find a positive EV bet. We sometimes suggest comparing the line to other know high value sports books on the Odds Dashboard. If it is clearly the slow moving sports book, or if there is arbitrage, then this is more evidence that you have a good bet.
3. Can I find out why the line is moving (optional): In an ideal world, we would like to know why the line is moving so we can be assured that we are on the right side of the line move. However, this is very hard in practice because lines move very quickly and we have to get our bets in before the sportsbook changes their lines.
4. Calculate Risk and Make the Bet: The question now is how much to place on the given bet. As mentioned in Intro to Betting and Bankroll Management, we believe the Kelly Criterion is the best method of determining your bet size.

Step 1 is to make sure that your Bankroll and Kelly Multiplier are properly set. You can read more on the Kelly Criterion here, but in short, a value of 1 will maximize your returns.

Next, simply select a bet from our odds dashboard and you can see what the bet size suggestion is on our Bet Analysis page.

How Come I Never See Green or Positive EV Bets?

We get this question quite a bit. The reality of sports betting is that it is sometimes hard to find value at the sportsbooks. When value appears, the market will quickly correct and take the value away. To be successful, the bettor has to move quickly or the sportsbook will beat you to the punch and update their lines before you can get your bet in.

Here are a few quick tips to maximize the amount of positive expected value on your Odds Dashboard:

1. Have money in at least 5 sportsbooks: I'm not sure we can hammer this point home hard enough. If you are only gambling with one sportsbook, then it will be very hard to get value out of GamedayMath.

2. Constantly monitor the Odds Dashboard or Picks screen: Positive value is not always available. There is somewhat of a time commitment to monitoring the screens to wait for the right bet to come available.

3. Change the filter on the Picks screen to "All Dates": The default is to only show the top picks on the current date, however there is much value to be found in games that are weeks or even months away.