Betting can be an exciting and sometimes profitable pastime, but it also comes with its share of risks. The thrill of the gamble, the rush of a win, the agony of a loss – it’s a rollercoaster that can lead to serious pitfalls if not approached with caution.
Every bettor is going to hit a rough patch at some point, even if they are betting with an edge. We simulated 50,000 bets in the chart below and listed out the number of times that a bettor would expect to see a losing streak. Even at 60% odds to win, a bettor will see an eight game losing streak sixteen times! At more realistic edges, like a 52% chance to win, a bettor can still expect to see a losing streak of seven or more roughly once every 365 bets. So, these streaks are to be expected and happen more often than one might think.
Here’s a guide to help you steer clear of common betting traps and make more informed decisions.
Don't Chase Losses
It's important to know when to call it a day. Sometimes, after a rough day, bettors feel the need to make up their losses by playing bigger bets on the late games of the day. Please, do NOT do this. What you should do is review your bankroll. If your losses were significant enough, then it may make sense to reduce your bet unit size.
Review the Basics
As we showed in the simulation above, just because one is losing, doesn't mean they are making bad bets. Go back to the basics:
- Are you getting enough CLV on your bets (50% or more)?
- Do you have a positive Expected Edge in your Bet Performance chart?
- Are there bets that significantly swayed the numbers to the negative?
Take a Break
If you find that betting is no longer enjoyable, it’s time to stop. Remember, betting should be fun and not a source of stress or financial burden. Losing is never fun! So, if this is affecting you emotionally, then it may be time to take a few days off. In this game, one always has to be thinking logically!
There Are Benefits to Losing
Remember that the sportsbooks love it when bettors lose! Having an account that loses on more days than it wins can keep you on the sportbook's "nice" list which will help you avoid being limited. In many ways, hiding your sharp play involves a lot of losing.
I parlay as often as I can to hide my sharp play from the sportsbooks. The problem: parlays lose A LOT, and that can be very hard to deal with. Don't worry! Stay disciplined and understand that there may be some incredibly rough patches. Long-term you will still be a winner.
In Conclusion
Betting can be an entertaining activity, but it’s important to approach it with caution and responsibility. By understanding the odds, setting a budget, avoiding emotional decisions, and knowing when to stop, you can enjoy betting without falling into common pitfalls. Stay informed, stay disciplined, and always bet responsibly.
If you feel that betting is becoming a problem, it's crucial to seek help. There are many resources available for those struggling with gambling addiction. Recognizing the problem and seeking help is a brave and crucial step towards recovery.
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