PrizePicks is a daily fantasy style game that has gained in popularity over the past year or so. Although GamedayMath doesn't cover player props (yet), there are a lot of our users who do use PrizePicks. The first question that comes to our mind is if we can be profitable playing PrizePicks. The first step of that is figuring out how often the correct side has to be chosen to make money over the long-term.
Let's break down the numbers for each of the game structures for PrizePicks...
How Does the Game Work?
As a daily fantasy game, the user must select between two and six sides of a player prop to be able to place a valid entry.
Note that the payout structure is a little bit misleading in that the payout includes the user's entry fee as well. For instance, getting 6 of 6 correct on a Flex Play wins you 25x the entry fee. This actually converts to American odds of +2400. Thus, if you bet $100 and won, then your winnings would only be $2,400.
Ties (or pushes) bump one down to the next tier of payouts. So, if a user made a Flex Play with six props, won five, and pushed one, then they would be paid out like they got five of five correct. This is important and we will get to this later.
The Structures That Should Not Be Played
Now to the math. These are the games that we would (almost) never touch because the win probabilities are too high to reach profitability.
2-Pick Power Play (3x the entry fee, +200): The user must go 2-0.
Break-even win probability: 57.7%
American Odds conversion: -136.4
Tips: There may be a time during Taco Tuesday where it could possibly make sense to play this. Yet, one would need to find two very profitable entries to make this worth while.
3-Pick Power Play (5x the entry fee, +400): The user must go 3-0.
Break-even win probability: 58.5%
American Odds conversion: -141
Tips: Never play this.
4-Pick Power Play (10x the entry fee, +900): The user must go 4-0.
Break-even win probability: 56.2%
American Odds conversion: -128.3
Tips: Slight better value than the 3-Pick, but still shouldn't be played.
3-Pick Flex Play (3 of 3 pays +225 and 2 of 3 pays -400): The user must win at least two to be in the money.
Break-even win probability: 59.8%
American Odds conversion: -148.8
Tips: Avoid like the plague.
4-Pick Flex Play (4 of 4 pays +400 and 3 of 4 pays -200): The user must win at least two to be in the money.
Break-even win probability: 56.9%
American Odds conversion: -132
Tips: At four picks, one is better with the Power Play
There May Be Some Value Here
There are two PrizePicks structures that we at GameDayMath feel are very beatable.
5-Pick Flex Play (5 of 5 pays +900, 4 of 5 pays +100, 3 of 5 pays 0.4x entry fee): The user must win at least three to be in the money.
Break-even win probability: 54.25%
American Odds conversion: -118.6
Tips: At 54.3% win probability, there may be something to work with here. We have to watch out for pushes as they would drop us into the 4-Pick Flex Play which is something that should be avoided. Thus, unless every prop is played at a half-point (to avoid pushes), then a 6-Pick is the way to go.
6-Pick Flex Play (6 of 6 pays +2400, 5 of 6 pays +100, 4 of 6 pays 0.4x entry fee): The user must win at least four to be in the money.
Break-even win probability: 54.21%
American Odds conversion: -118.4
Tips: The drawback to the 6-Pick vs. the 5-Pick is that the user needs to find one more prop that fits the criteria of being better than -118. The benefit, however, is that one push will drop the bettor into the 5-Pick category that has an almost identical break-even win probability.
Promotions
Occasionally, PrizePicks runs promotions which could be very beneficial to the user.
Swing For the Sweep (6 of 6 pays +2900, 5 of 6 pays +100, 4 of 6 pays 0.4x entry fee): The user must win at least four to be in the money.
Break-even win probability: 52.94%
American Odds conversion: -112.5
Tips: Awesome value here, but hard to get down on decent props during slow betting days.
Final Thoughts
With all of this in mind, it is suggested to play the 6-Pick Flex. While the big paydays won't come around too often, over the long-term this gives the bettor the best opportunity to be profitable.
We understand that every prop, in practice, does not have the same win probability. However, this makes the calculation much easier to do so this is why the math is shown this way. For one last breakdown, below is what your ROI and expected values would look like at different expected win probability values for a 6-Pick Flex Play ($100 bet).
50.0% win rate: -$32.81 EV, -32.81% ROI
52.4% win rate: -$15.43 EV, -15.43% ROI
54.206% win rate: -$0 EV, 0% ROI
55% win rate: $7.50 EV, 7.5% ROI
56% win rate: $17.60 EV, 17.6% ROI
58% win rate: $40.23 EV, 40.23% ROI
60% win rate: $66.41 EV, 66.41% ROI
65% win rate: $150.40 EV, 150.4% ROI
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