Underdog Fantasy is another of a plethora of daily fantasy apps that have arrived over the past couple of years. Similarly to PrizePicks, the platform is a pick'em style game. The user simply chooses an over or under on a variety of player props and wins if they all correct.
As with any of these platforms, it is important to understand the math if we are going to beat the game at a consistent level. Let's dive in...
What Is the Payout Structure?
The payout structure for the Pick'em game can be seem in the image below.
There are a few things to note on this payout structure. Under the "Standard" payout model, the user must get every prop correct to get paid out. There must be at least two selections made, but no more than five. If a user goes 3 for 3, then they would be paid out at 6x their entry fee (not including their entry fee, i.e. +500).
The "Insured" model allows a user to miss at least one prop and still get paid out. Under this structure, the user must make at least three picks to be eligible. This is the payout list for each combination:
3 Pick Insured: 3 correct (3x payout, +200), 2 correct (1x payout, entry fee returned)
4 Pick Insured: 4 correct (6x payout, +500), 3 correct (1.5x payout, -200)
5 Pick Insured: 5 correct (10x payout, +900), 4 correct (2.5x payout, +150)
Don't Play These Ones
Here is the math for the game structures that should be avoided because of their high odds..
2-Pick Standard (3x the entry fee, +200): The player must go 2-0.
Break-even win probability: 57.7%
American Odds conversion: -136.4
Tips: Exactly the same as PrizePicks. Never worth playing this.
4-Pick Standard (10x the entry fee, +900): The player must go 4-0.
Break-even win probability: 56.23%
American Odds conversion: -128.5
Tips: Strange to have to skip over the 3-Pick since it has much better odds than the 4-Pick
3-Pick Insured (3 of 3 pays +200 and 2 of 3 pays return of entry fee): The player must win at least 2.
Break-even win probability: 57.74%
American Odds conversion: -136.6
Tips: Never play this.
The Structures That Can Have Value
There are more ways to stumble upon a good structure by accident in Underdog Fantasy...
3-Pick Standard (6x the entry fee, +500): The player must go 3-0.
Break-even win probability: 55.03%
American Odds conversion: -122.4
Tips: Best value on the board. It's usually much easier to find three picks rather than five.
4-Pick Insured (4 of 4 pays +500 and 3 of 4 pays -200): The player must win at least 3.
Break-even win probability: 55.03%
American Odds conversion: -122.4
Tips: Not a mistake. This has almost identical odds to the 3-Pick Standard.
5-Pick Standard (20x the entry fee, +1900): The player must go 4-0.
Break-even win probability: 54.93%
American Odds conversion: -121.9
Tips: While the 5-Pick Insured is slightly better, this is playable.
5-Pick Insured (5 of 5 pays +900 and 4 of 5 pays +150): The player must win at least 4.
Break-even win probability: 54.75%
American Odds conversion: -121
Tips: The best of the group.
Underdog Fantasy Promotions
There are a few promotions that occasionally come out that give a user 50-50 break-even win probability.
Although the player is limited to $10, there is a ton of ways to find an edge here with these bets. Only the 2-Pick Standard and 3-Pick Standard pay even money, so be careful not to push it higher than that.
Final Thoughts
Here, it seems best that the 3-Pick Standard is the best way to go. Though it doesn't have the best odds, finding three picks is easier than five. Below are the win rates at various probability levels.
50.0% win rate: -$25.00EV, -25% ROI
52.4% win rate: -$13.67 EV, -13.67% ROI
55.03% win rate: -$0 EV, 0% ROI
56% win rate: $5.37 EV, 5.37% ROI
58% win rate: $17.07 EV, 17.07% ROI
60% win rate: $29.60 EV, 29.6% ROI
65% win rate: $64.78 EV, 64.78% ROI
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